With less than two weeks to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, when voters will elect 129 MSPs – 73 constituency and 56 regional – a growing body of polling is shaping expectations for both the electoral outcome and Scotland’s constitutional future.

Two polls released this week suggest that a majority of Scots could now favour independence. A Find Out Now survey of more than 1,000 respondents, commissioned by James Kelly of the pro-independence blog Scot Goes Pop, found that 53 percent would vote ‘Yes’ in a referendum when undecided voters are excluded. Including ‘don’t knows,’ support stands at 50 percent for independence and 44 percent for remaining in the UK.

The poll also indicates that the SNP is on course to dominate the constituency vote with 35 percent, well ahead of Reform UK on 16 percent. Scottish Labour follows on 14 percent, with the Scottish Greens at 12 percent, the Scottish Liberal Democrats on 10 percent, and the Scottish Conservatives on 9 percent.

On the regional list vote, the SNP is projected to win 27 percent, with the Greens in second place on 20 percent. Reform  follows on 17 percent, ahead of Labour on 12 percent, the Liberal Democrats, 11 percent, and the Conservatives, 10 percent.

These figures point to a potentially strong combined showing for pro-independence parties.

According to pollster James Kelly, nine out of fifteen polls conducted so far this year have found a majority in favour of independence.

The data also reveals a notable generational divide, that support for independence is strongest among people in their 30s, 68 percent ‘Yes’ to 27 percent ‘No,’ while opposition is highest among those aged 65 to 74, 69 percent ‘No’ to 26 percent ‘Yes.’

The polling suggests the Greens could achieve a record result, raising the possibility of a substantial pro-independence majority at Holyrood. However, the SNP alone is projected to fall short of an outright majority, potentially complicating the path to a second independence referendum.

A separate poll by Survation for Ballot Box Scotland places the SNP on 35 percent in constituency voting and 29 percent on the regional list, which would translate into around 57 seats. The Greens are projected to win a record 11 seats based on 11 percent of the list vote.

In that poll, Reform UK and Labour are tied on 20 percent in the constituency vote, followed by the Conservatives on 13 percent and Liberal Democrats on 10 percent. On the regional list, Reform leads on 19 percent, ahead of Labour, 17 percent, the Conservatives, 13 percent, and the Liberal Democrats, 8 percent.

The survey also asked voters which party they would least like to see in the next Scottish Government. Reform UK topped that measure at 34 percent, followed by the SNP on 17 percent and Labour on 14 percent.

The polls suggest that while no single party may secure a majority, the balance of the next Scottish Parliament could hinge on the combined strength of pro-independence parties.

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Opinion polls can be a valuable tool for understanding public sentiment. When conducted properly, through neutral wording, representative samples and transparent methodology, they help capture the complexities of public opinion. But the ‘polls’ that regularly appear on the pages of the right-wing press often bear little resemblance to genuine research.

Instead, they frequently rely on loaded questions, selective statistics and audiences already primed to agree with the publication’s editorial position. The result is less a measure of public opinion than a feedback loop in which readers are invited to confirm the narrative they have just been presented with.

Here are four recent examples that illustrate how such polls can be used to manufacture outrage rather than measure opinion.

Express – POLL: Should migrants be able to claim benefits?

The article introducing the poll highlighted figures showing that more than 179,000 non-EU migrants with indefinite leave to remain had claimed Universal Credit in 2024. It also quoted criticism from Conservative politicians.

What the framing omitted was key context that people granted indefinite leave to remain have usually lived and worked in the UK for years and have the same entitlement to claim benefits as others if they meet the criteria. By presenting the figures without that context, and immediately pairing them with political outrage, the poll nudges readers toward a particular answer.

GB News – POLL OF THE DAY: Should Winston Churchill be removed from our banknotes? VOTE NOW

Another example came from GB News, which asked readers whether Winston Churchill should be removed from British banknotes.

The poll followed confirmation from the Bank of England that future banknote designs will focus on themes such as wildlife rather than historical figures.

The article framed the change as an attack on a national icon, prompting readers to respond defensively. Unsurprisingly, many comments echoed that sentiment, praising Churchill as a symbol of Britain’s wartime “Bulldog spirit.”

Daily Mail – The Morning Poll: Has Meghan turned into Fergie by taking part in a ‘meet and greet’ event for paying fans?

The Daily Mail ran a “Morning Poll” asking whether Meghan, Duchess of Sussex had “turned into Sarah Ferguson” after taking part in a paid meet-and-greet event.

The question itself carries the judgement, essentially assuming readers will view Meghan, whom the right have long loved to hate, negatively.

GB News – POLL: Is trust in the BBC at ‘crisis point’? YOU DECIDE

GB News also asked readers whether trust in the BBC is at a “crisis point.”

The wording already implies the conclusion. Rather than asking neutrally about levels of trust, the poll presents “crisis” as the premise and invites readers to confirm it, an example of a classic leading question.

The post Four of the worst recent right-wing ‘polls’ and why they’re so misleading appeared first on Left Foot Forward: Leading the UK's progressive debate.

The Green Party has overtaken Labour to climb into second place in the polls, days after its victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

The Greens are up four points on 21%, putting it just two percentage points behind Reform UK on 23%. YouGov said that this is the highest level of support for the Greens it has ever recorded.

The YouGov poll shows that people’s current voting intention in a parliamentary election is as follows:

Reform UK 23% (-1)

Green 21% (+4)

Labour 16%(-2)

Conservatives 16%(-2)

Lib Dem 14%(nc)

Meanwhile, Reform’s lead in the polls continues to narrow. In this YouGov poll for the Times and Sky News, Reform’s projected vote share fell by one percentage point. 

In another recent poll carried out by Lord Ashcroft Polls, Reform dropped by three percentage points to 22%. 

A Green Party source told Sky News’ Beth Rigby: “We are coming for Reform and on the path to replacing Labour. Voters have been let down time and time again by high bills, toxic rhetoric on migration and failure to make real change to improve people’s lives. 

“Gorton and Denton showed that if people vote Green, they can get Green. Starmer can smear us as much as he wants but the voters want change and increasingly see the Greens as the party to break the failed status quo.”

Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward

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