Gavin Callaghan was Head of Political Management for Andy Burnham’s 2015 Leadership Campaign and is a former leader of Basildon Council
Everything now points towards Andy Burnham becoming Britain’s next Prime Minister within weeks. The real question is no longer whether he gets the keys to Number 10, but what he does once he has them.
From that moment onwards, the countdown to 2029 begins.
The next general election must be held by 2029. Burnham won’t have won a general election. He will have inherited the office of Prime Minister at one of the most turbulent moments in modern British political history, with around three years to convince the country not simply that Labour deserves another term, but that he deserves to remain in Number 10 in his own right.
By the time he walks through that famous black door, he will become Britain’s seventh Prime Minister in just ten years. David Cameron. Theresa May. Boris Johnson. Liz Truss. Rishi Sunak. Sir Keir Starmer. Andy Burnham.
Pause and think about that for a moment. That is the story of a country that has spent a decade searching for stability and, so far, failing to find it. Pivoting from statesman and woman to clowns and frauds. Never to find a solution.
In many respects, merely surviving until the next general election would already place Burnham among the longer-serving Prime Ministers of the past decade. But nobody remembers the politicians who simply keep the seat warm. History remembers those who persuade the British people to renew their contract with them, and if Andy Burnham wants to be spoken about in the same breath as Tony Blair rather than Theresa May, Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak, then the challenge before him is not becoming Prime Minister. It is winning the country.
And that, I would argue, is where the really interesting question begins.
For the best part of a decade, Andy Burnham has built something in Greater Manchester that very few politicians have managed to achieve anywhere in Britain. He hasn’t simply overseen transport reform, secured devolved powers or championed regeneration projects. Plenty of politicians have delivered individual policies. Burnham has done something rather more significant.
He has built a recognisable political identity around a place.
People often describe it as “Manchesterism”, but I think that slightly misses the point. What Burnham has really created is a politics that feels rooted. It is visible. It is tangible. It is about buses that turn up, town centres that matter, neighbourhood policing, decent housing, culture, football, local pride and civic confidence. Whether you agree with every decision he has taken is almost beside the point. People know what he stands for because they can see it reflected in the place he governs.
That is an increasingly rare quality in modern politics.
The challenge, however, is that Greater Manchester is not Britain, and governing the country is a very different proposition from governing England’s most successful combined authority.
The temptation, of course, would be to try and export Manchester wholesale, but that would be a mistake. The South of England is not crying out to become the North, nor should it. Yet if you spend any time travelling around Essex, Kent, Hampshire, Sussex or the commuter towns surrounding London, you quickly discover that many of the frustrations sound remarkably familiar. Young people wondering whether they will ever own a home. Residents watching high streets slowly lose their identity. Parents struggling to secure NHS appointments. Businesses frustrated by transport networks that simply don’t connect. Communities increasingly feeling that the people making decisions about their future have never really spent any meaningful time there.
Those frustrations are not northern grievances. They are English grievances.
That is why I suspect Burnham’s next political project cannot simply be Manchesterism. It has to become something broader: a modern English politics built around civic pride, local power and visible leadership. Not because every place should look like Manchester, but because every place deserves leaders who care about it as much as Burnham quite obviously cares about Manchester.
There is, however, another challenge waiting for Burnham if he walks into Downing Street, and it has nothing to do with buses, devolution or even Greater Manchester.
It is about Labour itself. Because after years of internal arguments, electoral setbacks and the understandable caution that comes with trying to rebuild credibility, I sometimes wonder whether Labour has forgotten that people don’t simply vote for competence.
They vote for hope. They vote for ambition. They vote for governments that appear willing to reshape the country rather than simply administer it.
People want Labour to be Labour again.
They want the party that founded the NHS when many insisted it could never work. The party that built the New Towns to tackle Britain’s post-war housing crisis. The party that expanded educational opportunity, strengthened workers’ rights, created Sure Start, passed the Equality Act and invested in programmes like Building Schools for the Future because it believed government had both the responsibility and the confidence to improve people’s lives.
Those were not cautious governments.
They were transformative governments.
They were rebellious governments.
They were Labour governments.
They were brave enough to ask not simply what was politically possible, but what Britain actually needed.
Somewhere along the way, Labour became so focused on proving it could be trusted to manage the country that it sometimes forgot people also want it to change the country.
Perhaps that is the lesson for Burnham.
The temptation in Westminster is always to become a different version of yourself. To soften the edges, to speak in ever more carefully tested language and to allow advisers to sand away the very qualities that made people notice you in the first place.
Maybe the trick is simply to let Burnham be Burnham.
One appointment already hints at that possibility. Bringing James Purnell into the heart of the operation is no small decision. Whether you agreed with every aspect of his political career or not, Purnell has long been regarded as one of Labour’s most serious strategic thinkers; somebody who understands both how government works and how political coalitions are built. It is an appointment that speaks of intent rather than inertia, confidence rather than caution. It suggests Burnham understands that winning the leadership is one thing; building a government capable of winning again is something altogether different.
There is another reason why all of this matters.
The next general election will not be won in Manchester, Liverpool or inner London. Labour already knows how to win those places. It will instead be decided in towns that often feel politically homeless; places that are neither metropolitan enough for one political tribe nor rural enough for another. The commuter belts. The coastal towns. The market towns. Places like Basildon, Swindon, Peterborough, Medway, Milton Keynes and dozens more besides, where people are less interested in ideological purity than they are in whether politics can once again become useful.
Listen carefully to what people in those communities actually talk about and it is striking how little of it resembles the arguments that dominate Westminster. They want safe streets. Reliable transport. Homes that their children might realistically be able to afford. GP appointments that don’t require weeks of waiting. Town centres they can once again feel proud of. Above all else, they want somebody who appears to understand the place in which they live.
Burnham instinctively understands this. His politics has always begun with place before party, community before ideology. That is one of the reasons he has become Labour’s most effective communicator since Tony Blair. He speaks like somebody who genuinely enjoys the company of ordinary people rather than someone who has spent too long surrounded by advisers trying to perfect the next soundbite.
Which brings me to Nigel Farage.
Farage’s greatest achievement has never simply been persuading people to vote for him. It has been persuading millions of people that politics stopped listening to them altogether. That argument cannot be defeated by telling voters they are mistaken. It can only be defeated by making it obviously untrue.
Burnham is perhaps uniquely placed within Labour to do exactly that because he is comfortable talking about England, comfortable talking about patriotism and comfortable talking about local identity without ever allowing those conversations to descend into the grievance politics that has become Farage’s stock in trade. He understands that people can be proud of where they come from without believing somebody else has to lose.
If he can take that language into every corner of England, Farage’s politics begins to look less like an unstoppable force and more like a symptom of problems that are finally being addressed.
Of course, none of this will happen through personality alone. Tony Blair’s success was never simply Tony Blair’s success. It was the product of an extraordinary team who complemented one another, challenged one another and understood that government is a collective endeavour. Burnham and Purnell were themselves, advisers in Blair’s Downing Street between 1997 and 2001. Burnham will need exactly the same discipline. He will need advisers prepared to disagree with him, ministers chosen because they can deliver rather than because they happen to be loyal, and mayors and council leaders who feel empowered rather than managed from Whitehall.
Because if there is one lesson from the past decade of British politics, it is surely this. Governments do not fail because they run out of slogans. They fail because they stop building.
Seven Prime Ministers in ten years tells the story of a country still searching for stability.
Andy Burnham’s opportunity is not simply to become the seventh name on that list.
It is to become the first in a generation whose name stays there long enough to change the country.
If he can take the confidence of Manchester and turn it into a new English settlement built on civic pride, devolved power and a Labour Party unafraid to be transformative again, then becoming Prime Minister will simply be the beginning.
Winning the 2029 general election is the moment that will define whether Andy Burnham merely occupied Downing Street…
…or whether he became the first Labour Prime Minister since Tony Blair to build something that truly lasts.
Image credit: Scottish Government – Creative Commons
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