Normally, we try to update you quarterly on what's going on with the US electric grid since it provides a nice view of developing trends and smooths out some month-to-month randomness. Unfortunately, I was out of the office when last month's data was released, so this will be a seven-month update on 2026 trends.

The top line item is that energy use is continuing to rise, albeit not as quickly as headlines about data centers might lead people to believe. Beyond data centers, there's a growing electrification—things like EVs and heat pumps—that is shifting energy demands onto the grid. Despite all of this, electricity use has risen by only 2 percent compared to the same period last year. At this time the previous year, demand had risen by 3 percent compared to the year prior.

Some of this may be due to continued improvements in efficiency, which had largely kept electricity demand stable throughout the early 2000s. And some of it may be because more data centers are generating their own power so that demand doesn't show up on the grid. So far, the growth in demand hasn't reached apocalyptic levels.

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When last we looked at the state of the US grid, the ongoing explosion in solar energy had turned it into a major contributor, but one that still lagged well behind fossil-fuel-powered generation. So it was a bit of a surprise when preliminary data suggested that May 2026 saw solar power pass coal-fired generation for the first time in the US. Now, with the official release of April grid data by the Energy Information Administration, we can see that production of solar electricity had passed coal a month earlier—with a bit of a caveat.

The caveat being that a substantial chunk of that solar production never reached the grid, since it's produced by rooftop installations and used in the building they sit atop.

The situation heading into April/May was pretty simple. After a brief resurgence last year, coal use resumed its decline, despite repeated government attempts to prop it up. Meanwhile, solar continued its rapid growth, driven by its position as the cheapest way to add generating capacity in most of the US. But this growth started from a small base, and the early months of the year are marked by seasonally low solar production. As a result, growth above 20 percent year over year still left solar providing only 6 percent of the power on the US grid, a sharp contrast to coal's 16 percent.

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