New Jersey yesterday asked the Supreme Court to rule on whether states can regulate sports betting on prediction markets such as Kalshi.

“Companies like Kalshi claim to offer legal sports betting in all 50 states, but they refuse to follow the gambling laws of any state," New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport said in a press release announcing the lawsuit.

In April, the US Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit ruled that New Jersey cannot regulate sports bets on prediction markets. The court determined that sports-related event contracts meet the legal definition of "swaps," giving the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction.

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Kalshi today lost a major ruling over whether it can evade state gambling laws, as a federal appeals court found that Nevada can stop the prediction market from allowing sports bets. While the Trump administration is trying to help prediction markets avoid state regulation, a panel of three Trump-appointed judges unanimously ruled against Kalshi in today's decision from the US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board today said the 9th Circuit "emphatically reject[ed] the view that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts application of Nevada’s gaming laws to sports-event contracts offered by Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood." Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, said that "prediction markets offering sports-event contracts constitute gambling and must comply with Nevada’s gaming laws and regulatory framework."

The judges affirmed a district court order that let Nevada enforce state laws against Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts.

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A state court in Washington this week ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports gambling and a variety of other wagers on its prediction market. King County Superior Court Judge John McHale issued a preliminary injunction in response to a lawsuit filed against Kalshi by the state of Washington.

"The order requires Kalshi to stop offering, accepting, or facilitating wagers on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science, or mentions in Washington," said a press release yesterday from Washington Attorney General Nick Brown. "Kalshi must implement an IP address and residency-based geofence by August 19 and a multi-source geofencing solution by September 2. This does not include all the wagers offered on Kalshi, but it includes a substantial part of their business, which in recent years has been increasingly driven by sports wagers."

Kalshi is not licensed by the state Gambling Commission and is not registered to conduct business in Washington, the court order said. McHale found that Kalshi ads claiming "that it offers 'legal betting' in Washington state are likely to mislead a reasonable consumer that such gambling activities are legal under state law."

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The Trump administration is trying to stop New York from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, and yesterday said it ordered the prediction market to continue operating in the state.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it exercised its emergency authority in response to a "market emergency." The CFTC said it acted "to ensure market stability" and "ordered the exchange to continue to operate in accordance with the Commodity Exchange Act’s Core Principles." The Trump administration took the action after a request from Kalshi.

The market emergency alleged by the CFTC is that New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi on July 31. James' lawsuit seeks a court order to permanently enjoin Kalshi "from operating an unlawful gambling business" in the state. The lawsuit also demands that Kalshi "make full restitution to customers who have engaged in betting" and pay financial penalties.

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Minnesota, the first US state to prohibit prediction markets, was prevented from enforcing the law by a federal court ruling just days before the ban was scheduled to take effect. But while Minnesota was stopped from enforcing a total ban, the state may ultimately be allowed to prohibit some types of prediction-market wagers.

The Trump administration and the two largest prediction markets—Kalshi and Polymarket—sued Minnesota after the state enacted the law in May. The cases were consolidated, and a ruling issued yesterday imposed a preliminary injunction blocking the law that was scheduled to take effect on August 1.

Minnesota lawmakers saw prediction markets as indistinguishable from gambling, but the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argues it has exclusive authority to regulate the platforms under federal law. One of the primary legal questions is whether event contracts are "swaps," which are regulated by the CFTC.

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Kalshi is a high-tech prediction market that allows people to "forecast the future" (their term). It is about contracts and information, the company says, making its offerings more like a soybean futures contract than a round of blackjack or a pull on the one-armed bandit.

Still, prediction markets look a lot like betting if you squint, which is why states like New York have tried to regulate them under gambling laws. To head this off, Kalshi has sought federal protection under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Yes, this means regulation for Kalshi, but it also means the CFTC will sue states like Kentucky, Minnesota, Illinois, and Rhode Island, trying to pre-empt their laws in favor of a single national standard that the CFTC controls.

While this battle plays out, government insiders continue to generate insider trading stories after using their work knowledge to place bets "forecast the future" and make huge sums of money. The classic example, of course, was Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US soldier who participated in planning the capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and then made $410,000 from that knowledge on the prediction site Polymarket. Van Dyke was arrested in April.

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Kalshi lost an attempt to override New York's state gambling laws yesterday, with a federal judge rejecting the prediction market operator's request to prevent enforcement of the rules.

Kalshi is appealing the decision to a higher court. This is one of numerous cases in which judges must decide whether state laws are preempted by federal regulation of prediction markets.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James issued a joint statement on the ruling today. “New York’s gambling laws are designed to protect consumers," they said. "Kalshi tried to ignore them. Yesterday, they lost in court. We will continue to hold all gambling platforms accountable to the law—and that includes prediction markets.”

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A fight between states and the federal government over who should regulate sports betting is heating up, as states accuse prediction markets like Kalshi of taking the exact same sports bets as gambling platforms without paying taxes or adhering to stricter controls.

Last Tuesday, Kalshi sued Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Governor J.B. Pritzker, and other officials after the state classified Kalshi and other prediction markets as unlicensed sports wagering operators.

It’s not the first legal battle between a prediction market and a state, but it is perhaps the most urgent for Kalshi, which is the biggest prediction market for sports bets. Across the board, prediction markets just had their biggest week ever, amid major sporting events like the NBA Finals, the World Cup, and the Stanley Cup. If the law stands, Kalshi would owe taxes no other state is charging and could face felony charges if violations are found.

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