A new mega poll has projected that if an election were held tomorrow, there would be a hung parliament with Labour winning the most seats, followed by the Tories and Reform in third place.

The poll puts Labour on 241 seats, down from the 411 the party won in the 2024 election and 85 seats short of the 326 required for an overall majority.

The figures mark a significant recovery for Labour compared to this time last year, when a YouGov poll indicated that Keir Starmer’s Labour was leading in just 144 seats. 

It does however mean Labour would have to form a coalition with other parties, such as the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens. 

The projection puts the Lib Dems on track to win 71 seats, the SNP on 40, Plaid Cymru on 15, and the Greens on nine. 

In a blow to Nigel Farage, the poll shows a sharp decline in support for Reform over the last year.

The median estimate of today’s Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) poll shows Nigel Farage’s party winning in 123 constituencies.

In last year’s MRP, YouGov projected that Reform would win 311 seats, putting the party in first place and 15 seats shy of a majority.

The poll puts the Conservatives in second place on 130 seats, meaning that even if Kemi Badenoch’s party joined forces with Reform, the parties would still be 73 seats short of a majority. 

Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward

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In a major boost to the Labour government, the party is expected to win the next general election, according to new polling analysis.

With Reform’s polling lead gradually collapsing over recent months and Farage lurching from one scandal to the next, poll findings by the UK Polling Report, predict that Labour will still be the largest party.

Taking an average of recent opinion polls, the analysis predicts Reform will gain 24.8% of support, while Labour will be on 22.1%. The Tories meanwhile were projected to be on 20%.

Translated into seats under the first-past-the-post electoral system, Labour would be rewarded for having a wider geographical spread of support, leaving them the largest party on 209 seats, which would be 202 fewer than were elected in 2024 and 117 short of an overall majority.

Reform would come second on 149 seats, with the Tories on 133 and the Lib Dems on 72.

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Prime Minister Andy Burnham has ruled out calling an early general election before 2029, telling the BBC ‘I’m going to rule it out’ and saying his focus was on getting Britain back where it should be.

Burnham officially became Prime Minister last week after Keir Starmer resigned following weeks of pressure after disappointing local election results in May, with Burnham making it clear he intended to launch a leadership election after being re-elected to Parliament.

He went on to secure the nominations of an overwhelming majority of Labour Party MPs and became Prime Minister, however critics have claimed that Burnham has no mandate to deliver the kind of bold and radical change that he intends, as the wider public have not vote for him.

Appearing on Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday show in his first major interview as prime minister, Burnham was asked: “You say that you coming into power would be the biggest change this country has seen in four decades.

“Thing is, 25,000 people voted for you in Makerfield, the 48 million people in the electorate in this country haven’t had a chance to have a say on any of your plans, do you rule out having a general election before 2029.”

Burnham replied: “There is no early general election, and millions of people you mentioned voted for a manifesto, we’re in a Parliamentary democracy so that is what people voted for and I will honour that manifesto.”

The Labour leader said he had faced the public in Makerfield, and also had the support of colleagues in Parliament.

Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward

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