In the final days before the Makerfield by-election, Rupert Lowe appeared to have settled on a straightforward electoral strategy, denounce anything remotely objectionable as ‘woke.’
The leader of Restore Britain spent the past week launching attacks against the supposed forces of wokeness, deploying the term so liberally that it increasingly seems to mean little more than “something Rupert Lowe disapproves of.”
Speaking to the Telegraph, which, like the Mail on Sunday, was keen to report how Restore Britain is backed by neo-fascists, “the sorts of people how claim Hitler was “misunderstood,” as the newspaper described, Lowe said: “I’m not going to be put down by some woke creeps telling us we’re racist.”
And when asked about the prospect of Restore dividing the right-wing vote, Lowe retorted:
“To those who warn a divided Right could hand power to Andy Burnham, or a rainbow coalition of the increasingly radical Left,
“Get a life. I’m only interested in doing what I think is right for the country.”
And Lowe’s anti-woke offensive didn’t stop with his political rivals.
He also took aim at Britain’s universities while questioning public spending on research and development.
Speaking during a Public Accounts Committee hearing, Lowe expressed concern about taxpayer money “disappearing into a woke university abstract experiment.”
Ian Chapman, chief executive of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), hit back, reminding Lowe that the purpose of research funding is to achieve outcomes rather than to police the ideological composition of university departments.
Chapman explained that his role was not to “micromanage” universities, scrutinise individual hiring decisions or monitor staffing arrangements. Instead, he argued, public bodies should establish clear objectives for publicly funded research and hold institutions accountable for delivering results.
Yet, coming for the man who, a year ago, accused Reform UK itself of “going woke,” Lowe’s comments come as no surprise.
“I agree with JK Rowling,” Lowe said in an interview, “that it appears that Reform have gone woke… On a number of issues, they appear to have gone woke. Not just welfare payments but almost every aspect with what Nigel utters now appears to be in conflict with what he said in the past.”
At this rate, the only thing that isn’t woke is Rupert Lowe.
Your Party MP Zarah Sultana has criticised Andy Burnham, Makerfield’s new MP, suggesting nothing will change if he becomes prime minister.
Sultana described Burnham as “the establishment’s last roll of the dice”, “not the second coming”.
Burnham was elected to represent Makerfield yesterday, and will now look to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister.
The Coventry MP blasted Burnham in a post on X, criticising him for voting for the Iraq war in 2003, and for refusing to describe Israel’s ongoing destruction and mass killings in Palestine as genocide.
In a strongly-worded post on X, Sultana wrote: “Just another reminder that Andy Burnham voted for the Iraq war – an illegal war that cost over a million lives.
“He has refused to describe the systematic slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza as genocide.”
Referring to Burnham replacing Starmer as prime minister, she said: “So what will change? Nothing.”
Earlier this month, Burnham said he “can’t judge” if the Israeli military’s crimes in Gaza are a genocide.
Sultana argued arms sales to Israel would continue under a Burnham government, and that “welfare will be cut to fund more weapons”.
She added that immigration detention will be expanded, and mass deportations will continue.
According to a ‘source’ who spoke to the Guardian, Burnham has privately backed Shabana Mahmood’s hardline changes to Indefinite Leave to Remain, which have seen qualifying times for settled status doubled from five to at least 10 years.
The former Labour MP said the danger of “racist pogroms” on our streets has not gone away, and that fascism is “already here”, adding that “only socialism can face down this barbarism”.
Earlier today, she also mocked Starmer’s response to Burnham’s victory in Makerfield.
Starmer congratulated Burnham, stating: “Voters chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate.”
While some commended Sultana’s comments, others accused the co-founder of the failed Your Party project of “mouthing left politics” but failing to achieve change.
After a thumping victory in the Makerfield by-election, Andy Burnham has set out his vision for both the Labour Party and the country during his by-election victory rally.
Burnham has made no secret of his desire to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership and today he set out his priorities for the country. Here are four key takeaways from Burnham’s speech:
1.’The Labour party must change’
Burnham told journalists and party activists gathered at the rally that he did ‘talk about the need to change Labour in this campaign and we’ve got to now take this moment to answer the challenges that have been laid down’.
He has championed bold and radical measures such as public control of energy and water as well as electoral reform and greater devolution.
2. An end to ‘trickle-down economics’
Burnham called for an economy that works for everyone and not just a few ‘in far off places’. He also called for bringing down water and energy bills and rail fares to make life more affordable for people, and highlighted his work in Manchester in capping bus fares.
“We do need an end to trickle-down economics, which didn’t trickle down very much at all to places like this, we want to see a new drive of re-industrialisation across the North of England and indeed in the rest of the country and indeed big change in Whitehall if that is to happen.”
3. Public procurement to use British business
Burnham said public procurement should be used for the benefit of British business and British industry so that ‘we can re-industrialise’.
He also said that procurement should be used to get more work placements for people and a guarantee of a work placement for every 16-18 year old who wants one.
4.End the ‘unfair’ immigration system
The Labour leadership hopeful also spoke about the unfairness of the current immigration system, criticising how the Home Office has turned areas like this into ‘HMO Britain’.
He has also supported Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s recent immigration crackdown. Sources close to Burnham say that he wants to “reframe” Mahmood’s changes while supporting attempts to limit legal and illegal migration.
A new constituency-wide poll of Makerfield circulating internally among Labour staffers, puts Andy Burnham on course for a victory in the crucial by-election.
The poll, reported on by the I paper’s Kitty Donaldson and which is being shared internally among Labour Party staff, shows Burnham leading with 35%, followed by Reform UK on 24% and Restore Britain on 13%.
Rupert Lowe has caused a major headache for Farage, splitting the vote on the right.
It’s among a number of polls in the constituency now pointing to a Burnham victory.
Last week, a poll carried out by Survation, found that Labour were on 49%, an increase of 6 points on the last poll, while Reform were on 39%.
It comes after the Reform candidate, Robert Kenyon, was hit by a number of scandals involving his past social media comments, which expose him for having expressed misogynistic and bigoted views.
Kenyon previously claimed that women “can’t drive” and that they get abortions for “vanity purposes”.
Kenyon also claimed that women primarily rely on abortions so they can “shag anyone they want”.
A Question Time audience member tore apart Reform’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election, telling him that she would rather ‘have a career politician than a plumber who’s a sexist’.
Robert Kenyon, Reform’s candidate in Makerfield, has been condemned after his past social media posts expressing sexist and misogynistic views were exposed.
Kenyon previously claimed that women “can’t drive” and that they get abortions for “vanity purposes”.
Kenyon also claimed that women primarily rely on abortions so they can “shag anyone they want”.
Appearing on Question Time as part of a by-election special, a woman in the audience told Kenyon: “I’d rather have a career politician than a plumber who’s a sexist.”
Her comments were greeted by widespread applause, before presenter Fiona Bruce asked him about his past comments.
Kenyon claimed he made many of the comments 15 years ago, and held his hands up to making mistakes, even though his comments about abortion were made more recently.
Andy Burnham has extended his lead over Reform in the crucial Makerfield by-election by 10 points according to the latest poll.
The poll, carried out by Survation, found that Labour are on 49%, an increase of 6 points on the last poll, while Reform are on 39%.
The far-right Restore Britain meanwhile are on 8%.
It comes after the Reform candidate, Robert Kenyon, was hit by a number of scandals involving his past social media comments, which expose him for having expressed misogynistic and bigoted views.
Kenyon previously claimed that women “can’t drive” and that they get abortions for “vanity purposes”.
Kenyon also claimed that women primarily rely on abortions so they can “shag anyone they want”.
The Makerfield by-election has become a key test for both Labour and Reform, with Burnham keen to show that he can take on Nigel Farage’s party and win.
The Mayor of Greater Manchester also confirmed on BBC Question Time yesterday that should he win, he will seek to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is so rattled by the work of anti-extremist campaign group Hope not Hate, which has exposed hundreds of the party’s candidates for sharing racist and far-right views, that he’s written to the Charity Commission in a bid to hamper its work.
Farage has written a letter to the Charity Commission complaining about Hope Unlimited Charitable Trust (HUCT) funding private company Hope Not Hate Limited’s “political activities”.
Under UK charity law, a charitable trust can fund political activities, but only if the activity is directly intended to support its charitable purpose and does not cross into party politics.
Farage has tried to claim that Hope not Hate is funded entirely by grants from HUCT, and accused Hope not Hate of sending leaflets to Makerfield homes endorsing Labour candidate Andy Burnham at next month’s by-election and rejecting his party Reform UK.
Clearly Reform are rattled. If only they bought such level of scrutiny to vetting their own party’s candidates many of whom have been exposed for expressing anti-Semitic, Islamophobic and racist views as well as making misogynistic comments.
Nick Lowles, Chief Executive of Hope Not Hate, called the complaint a transparent attempt to distract from ‘legitimate scrutiny of its candidate in Makerfield’. A recent investigation published by HOPE not Hate, revealed misogynistic and degrading comments Robert Kenyon made about women.
Lowles added: “Reform may not like being scrutinised, but voters deserve to know who is asking for their support. “It’s a shame that Nigel Farage has not put as much effort into vetting his own candidates as he has done making spurious complaints to the charity commission.”
Reform’s candidate in the crucial Makerfield by-election continues to make the headlines for all the wrong reasons, as his past social media posts continue to emerge showing his worrying views.
Robert Kenyon, who is taking on Labour’s Andy Burnham, agreed with a post in an online forum that described the annexation of Crimea as “democracy in action”.
The Telegraph reports that under a post titled “Hypocrisy of the West regarding Ukraine in the sin bin”, one forum member wrote: “The people of the Crimea want to be in Russia, for me that is democracy in action.
“The Government should work for the people not the other way round. The people have spoken and they have what they want. The Falklands and Gibraltar, they want to stay British, so be it.”
Mr Kenyon replied: “I agree totally, Russia are well within their rights to do what they have done as we did with the Falklands. However, will Latvia be next?”
It comes after a string of past social media posts by Kenyon were unearthed, including those which expressed misogynistic views. The plumber also expressed pro-Remain views.
A Times investigation revealed that the Reform candidate made pro Remain comments on a rugby league forum in 2019.
In a post on 28 March 2019, Kenyon wrote: “So anyone who thinks I love Trump, voted Brexit, read the Daily Mail, live in the 1950s, a Tory and 103 is wrong. I’m none of the above.”
On European free movement, Kenyon wrote: “Free movement of people is great when they are natives of the EU countries and not people from outside Europe seeking a Greek passport that will allow them into any country in the EU”.
Kenyon has also been accused of making ‘degrading’ comments about women in a series of resurfaced posts.
As reported by the Independent, Kenyon previously claimed that women “can’t drive” and that they get abortions for “vanity purposes”.
Kenyon also claimed that women primarily rely on abortions so they can “shag anyone they want”.
“We’ve absolutely walked it,” declared a jubilant Nigel Farage after last week’s local elections, hailing the results as a “historic shift.” Commentators rushed to agree. Reform UK is “in pole position to form the next government,” the Spectator announced.
Yet since those jubilant remarks, a by-election in Makerfield is now looming, which may become the clearest test yet of Reform’s electoral limits. Reform swept every council ward in the constituency during this month’s local elections, but the possible candidacy of Andy Burnham could derail Reform’s momentum in the Wigan borough.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice has suggested Labour would have “less than a 5 per cent chance” of holding the seat without Burnham, highlighting both Reform’s momentum and the Greater Manchester mayor’s popularity in the North West. The contest could reveal whether Reform’s support is deep enough to overcome tactical anti-Reform voting behind a high-profile and popular Labour figure.
Whatever the outcome in Makerfield, the race reflects a broader shift in British politics. With the change Labour promised two years ago still undelivered in the eyes of many voters, the country is fragmenting into an increasingly volatile seven-party contest, and Reform appears to be the chief beneficiary.
The far-right party won roughly a third of the council seats contested in England, surged in parts of Wales, and inflicted heavy losses on Labour in areas once considered secure. The headlines wrote themselves: Britain’s political landscape is changing.
But beneath the drama lies a more complicated reality. Reform’s national vote share is actually slipping, and whether the party’s support is enough to carry Farage to Downing Street is far less certain than the headlines suggest. Tactical voting against Reform is already emerging. The Conservatives, though battered, are not dead and Britain’s increasingly fragmented political system may ultimately prevent Reform from converting media momentum into parliamentary power.
Far from proving Reform is destined for government, these elections may instead reveal the limits of Farage’s project.
The numbers behind the hype
The most noteworthy metric deployed to understand the elections is the National Equivalent Vote (NEV), an estimate used by academics to model how Britain would vote if local elections were held nationwide.
Analysis of more than three million votes put Reform first on 27%, ahead of the Conservatives on 20%, Labour on 15%, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens on 14% each. Translated into Westminster seats, the figures point not to a Reform majority but to a hung parliament.
More importantly, Reform’s 27% represents a decline from last year’s equivalent of 32%.
That matters. The narrative surrounding Reform suggests unstoppable growth, yet the underlying data points in the opposite direction. While Reform dominated headlines and picked up council seats, its national support actually softened.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives recovered modestly from 18% to 20%, despite months of predictions of electoral extinction.
The Greens were, by this measure, the election’s real success story, doubling their equivalent vote share from 7% to 14%.
What emerges is not a simple story of Reform ascendency, but one of political fragmentation. Reform is benefiting from concentrated local gains, anti-incumbent anger, and relentless media attention more than from a sustained nationwide surge.
As pollster Peter Kellner observed, the trends on the left and right are diverging, Reform’s vote share is slipping while the Conservatives stabilise, Labour is weakening while the Greens grow stronger.
That is not the profile of a party marching inexorably towards power.
The Conservatives are wounded, not finished
Predictions of Conservative collapse also appear premature.
Despite Reform’s advances, the Conservatives remain dominant in large parts of southern England. They retained control of Hampshire and regained boroughs in London, including Westminster, which Labour captured in 2022.
This matters because Reform’s coalition remains geographically uneven. It performs strongly in post-industrial towns, coastal areas, and places suffering economic decline. But it struggles more in affluent southern constituencies where older Conservative voters remain wary of Farage-style populism.
That weakness creates an opening for tactical anti-Reform voting, something already visible in these local elections, where Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters backed Conservative candidates in some areas to block Reform victories.
Polling from More in Common in March showed more people than ever are choosing Reform as the party they would actively vote against. The research found 38% of voters would vote against Reform, more than against any other party.
If we think back to marginal contests, like Gorton and Denton earlier this year, and Caerphilly in 2025, voters moved towards whichever candidate was best placed to defeat Reform.
There’s no hiding from the fact that the elections were bad for Labour in that where the electorate saw it as a straight Labour versus Reform, then the latter often emerged as victors. However, the evidence also shows that in those seats where other parties could be in a position to keep Reform out, that’s where voters chose to vote tactically.
The great Labour election victories of 1945, 1966 and 1997, (2024 was an odd one in that the Starmer ‘landslide’ was never built on great popular support), were all based on an alliance between traditional working-class and progressive middle-class voters. There is no sign that Farage is anywhere close to building such an equivalent reactionary alliance on the right. Which means that in 2029, Reform could face the same electoral squeeze that has historically punished insurgent parties under Britain’s voting system.
Once predictable first-past-the-post is becoming less predictable
For decades, Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system insulated Labour and the Conservatives from serious challengers. Smaller parties could win millions of votes and still secure very few seats.
That logic is beginning to shift.
The local elections showed how fragmented British politics has become. Reform won control of councils despite securing well below 50% of the vote in many places. Voters are increasingly willing to abandon the traditional two-party system, and the old warning that voting for smaller parties is “wasted” is no longer viable.
“Once upon a time, Conservative and Labour politicians would cry, ‘A Liberal vote is a wasted vote’. That kind of argument has seemingly lost its force,” he said.
Yet fragmentation cuts both ways. Reform benefits from it locally, but Westminster elections are far more brutal. In 2024, Labour and the Tories still won 533 Commons seats between them, while Reform and the Greens, despite collectively receiving more than a fifth of the national vote, secured only nine seats.
This creates a paradox for Reform. Britain’s electoral system may no longer suppress smaller parties as effectively as before, but it still punishes parties whose support is broad rather than efficiently concentrated.
And tactical voting can extend that problem.
Tactical voting could become Reform’s biggest obstacle
Much of the next general election may come down to one question: can anti-Reform tactical voting be organised effectively?
Historically, centre-left voters have been more disciplined at tactical coordination than the right. In 2024, tactical voting played a decisive role in removing the Conservatives from power, as Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green supporters coalesced around whichever candidate was best placed to defeat the Conservatives locally.
A similar dynamic could emerge against Reform.
Even at roughly 30% support, which incidentally has dipped to 26% this year, seven in ten voters still prefer another party.
The local elections may therefore represent not the beginning of limitless growth, but the upper limit of Reform’s appeal.
More importantly, many voters actively dislike Nigel Farage. His pint-swilling, blokey-banter form of populism, appears to repel as many voters as it attracts. His finances are facing growing scrutiny, while his past bromances with Trump and Putin remain politically toxic with large sections of the British public. Farage’s approval ratings stand at minus 38, having declined consistently since the middle of last year.
As journalist Sam Bright argues: “Judging by his current leadership of Reform – the dodgy donations, the racist candidates, and the punitive populism – Farage is incapable of breaking this mould. He’s instinctively divisive – preferring to build loyalty among an engaged, enraged sub-section of voters rather than unify a coalition capable of winning a majority.”
That creates fertile conditions for tactical alliances.
Electoral Calculus recently warned that Reform may face “the same tactical voting push” that gave the Tories their worse-ever general election defeat. If anti-Reform coordination intensifies, Farage’s party could find itself trapped, strong enough to frighten opponents, but not broad enough to overcome a united anti-Reform vote.
Reform could also splinter from within
Reform faces pressure not only from opponents, but from being outflanked by even more extreme parties.
One of the most interesting stories from the local elections came from Great Yarmouth, where Rupert Lowe, former Reform MP and founder of the breakaway movement Restore Britain, claimed great local success through its offshoot party, Great Yarmouth First.
The group contested ten seats and won all of them. Norfolk County Council, once safely Conservative, was thrown into no overall control after both Reform and Lowe-backed candidates surged.
That success reflects a wider mood within sections of populist right that Reform itself is becoming too cautious, too managerial, too centred around Farage.
In a pub conversation after the elections, one man summed up the confusion and volatility of this political space perfectly.
“Everything will be okay if Restore get in,” he told me, before adding: “We need Tommy Robinson as PM,” seemingly confusing Restore Britain with Advance UK, the far-right party launched by former Reform deputy leader Ben Habib and openly backed by Robinson supporters.
The exchange was chaotic, but it showed how fluid and unstable this political constituency still is. Many voters drifting towards Reform are not driven by ideological coherence so much as anger, alienation, distrust of mainstream politics, and a desire to punish the establishment. Their loyalties are shallow and can shift quickly between competing anti-system movements.
For now, Restore Britain remains small and highly localised. But its emergence hints at a familiar problem in populist politics, fragmentation. Protest movements built around personality, grievance and anti-establishment energy often struggle to maintain unity once success arrives.
Reform’s rise depends heavily on presenting itself as the singular vehicle for right-wing anger. If competing nationalist movements begin splintering that vote, Farage’s path becomes far harder.
Reform has momentum, but momentum isn’t power
None of this means Reform UK should be dismissed, far from it. The party has terrified both Labour and the Conservatives, but the local elections do not prove Reform is on the verge of government. They show a party with undeniable momentum, but also clear structural weaknesses, including a slipping vote share, geographical limits, tactical opposition, and vulnerability to fragmentation.
British politics is entering an era of instability in which no party commands broad national loyalty. Reform is thriving in that environment, but so are the Greens and smaller insurgent movements.
And that is why the looming Makerfield by-election matters far beyond a single seat. If Andy Burnham were able to halt Reform’s advance there, it would suggest that a sufficiently popular, locally rooted candidate can still assemble a broad anti-Reform coalition under Britain’s fragmented electoral system. If not, it would strengthen the argument that Reform’s appeal is beginning to cut through even against high-profile opposition figures.
Farage may have succeeded in breaking the old two-party order. Turning that disruption into actual power, however, is a far more difficult task.
Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is author of Right-Wing Watch
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